Course Description:  This course is designed for the student who is interested in pursuing a career in natural science, social science, engineering, mathematics or any other career that involves performing research and/or interpreting research results.  The purpose of the course is to introduce students to the major concepts and tools for collecting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data.  The emphasis of this course is on the use of graphical and numerical techniques to study patterns and departures from patterns, experimental design, probability, sampling distributions, and statistical inference.

Resources and Materials

Text: 
Stats Modeling the World by Bock, Velleman, and De Veaux (2007)

Resources:
Scheaffer, R.L., Gnanadesikan, M., Watkins, Al, & Witmer, J.A. (2004).Activity-Based Statistics: Student Guide. New York: Springer-Verlag.

Rossman, Allan, Chance, Beth & Von Oehsan, J., (2002)Workshop Statistics; Discovering with Data and the Graphing Calculator, New York: Key Curriculum Press & Springer-Verlag.

Technology:
Texas Instrument TI-83+,TI-84+ graphing calculators.

ActivStats statistical software.

Videos:
Decisions Through Data(1992).COMAP.

Class Format:  This class will consists of homework review, individual and group work, lectures, cooperative learning activities, labs, computer labs, TI graphing calculator explorations and labs, writing assignments, quizzes and tests.

• In class we will collect data through experiments, simulations, TI graphing calculator and using Activstats.
• Students will complete 2 research projects during the year.  They are required to design a study, collect and analyze data, write a research paper and present their findings to the class.
• 6-10 writing assignments (Investigative Tasks) are assigned throughout the course.
• Homework will be assigned on regular basis mostly from the text.
• Quizzes and Tests are given on a regular basis.

Vermont Standards:
7.9aaa.  Analyze single-variable data using frequency distributions, histograms, and summary statistics.  Analyze two-variable data using scatter plots, regression lines, and correlation coefficients.
7.9bbb.  Work with normal distributions in some of its basic uses.
7.9ccc.  Explore questions of experimental design, use of control groups, and reliability.
7.9ddd.  Find all possible combinations, arrangements, and/or permutations within given constraints.  Use experimental measures of likelihood based on gathering of data to arrive at relative frequencies of change events.  Use theoretical probability models to arrive at probabilities for chance events.  Use simulations to estimate probabilities.
7.9eee.  Set up and work with appropriate sample spaces.  Use sampling techniques to draw inferences about large populations.

Student Responsibilities:

Overarching Expectation:
This course will follow the curriculum set forth by the College Board for AP Statistics.  It is expected that ALL students enrolled in this course will complete the required work to prepare for the AP Statistics Exam regardless of whether he/she registers to take the AP Exam.  This year the Exam for Statistics is scheduled for May 2009.

Assessment:
Chapter Tests: 200 points
A chapter test will be given at the end of each chapter.
Quizzes:  100 points
Announced and unannounced quizzes will be given frequently to evaluate your understanding of topics as we progress through each chapter.

One Retake will be allowed on either a test or a quiz each quarter.  However, the retake must be done within three days from the test or quiz and two will be averaged for your final score.

Mini-Quizzes (Daily Evaluations):  200-400 points per quarter

Mini-Quizzes will be given on a daily basis.  You have one day to make up a mini-quiz if you are absent. 

Investigative Task:  100-200 points
6-10 writing tasks will be assigned throughout the year in the free response format.  These should be typed.
Article Evaluations:  (100 pts each)
Throughout this course students will be required to read newspaper or magazine articles about statistics and do a write up and presentation to the class.
Projects/Computer Labs:
Projects and computer labs will be assigned periodically.  I will inform you on the points.
TI Graphing Calculators/Computer Software:
All students have a TI-83/TI-83+/TI-84 graphing calculator for use in class, at home and on the AP Exam.  Students will use the calculators for exploration and labs throughout the entire course on a regular basis.  Each student will also have a copy of ActivStats, a statistical software.  Students will have assignments that need to be completed with this software and we will use it to explore many topics.

Homework and Notes:  200 points

Homework will be assigned, for the most part, on a daily basis.  Notes may be given by me in class or assigned to be taken from your text.  Notes and completed homework (includes coping of original problem, and work shown) are to be kept in a three ring binder.  A graphing calculator (TI-83 or TI-84) is highly recommended for all students in this class. Your three ring binder should have separate sections (homework, notes, quizzes/tests and warm-up problems) or be in chronological order.  It should be neat, well organized and contain any extra material handed out as part of this course.  The grading of homework and notes may vary:  For example, daily checks, random collections, or homework/notebook quizzes.

            Grading Policy on daily checks of homework:
Four points:  homework is completed thoroughly:  original problem is shown, all work shown & done correctly and is on time.
Three points:  homework is not done completely (i.e. the last few problems are missing or original problem is not shown)
Two points: homework is completed thoroughly and is late or only half the homework is completed.
One point:  work is not shown or homework is less than half completed!

• I will not accept any late homework past the chapter test!

Course Outline: Class Structure (75 minute blocks 1st semester and 75 minute blocks every other day 2nd semester).

Unit I:            (12-14 days)

            Chapter 1:  Students will define statistics
Chapter 2:  Data:  Students will define data and be able to describe the 5 W’s. Students will discuss variables and make distinctions about categorical and quantitative data.

• Read and complete outline
• Fill out class survey
• TI-83 entering data activity
• Chapter 2 notes
• Chapter 2 problem set- 3,7.11, & 25
• Chapter  2 Quiz

Chapter 3:  Displaying and Describing Categorical Data:  Students will work with distributions of categorical data including pie charts, bar graphs, and two way tables.

• Read and complete outline
• Classwork:  Smoking and Education
• Chapter 3 notes
• Writing Assignment:  Race and Death
• Chapter 3 problem set- 7,11,13,23,29,31 & 37
• Chapter  3 Quiz

Chapter 4:  Displaying Quantitative Data:  Students will display quantitative variables with histograms, stem and leaf plots, dot plots and time plots.  Students will begin looking at the concepts of centers and spreads of distributions.

• Read and complete outline
• Chapter 4 notes
• Chapter 4 problem set- 3,7,11,21,27,35&39
• Chapter  4 Quiz

Chapter 5:  Describing Distributions Numerically- Students will be able to create boxplots and 5 # summary displays.  Students will look at mean and standard deviation to look at data with symmetrical distributions.

• Read and complete outline
• Classwork:  McTofu & Mooseburgers
• Chapter 5 notes
• ActivStats:  Student Body Data Desk Lab
• ABS:  Matching Plots to Variables and Matching Statistics to Plots
• Video:  Measures of Center, BoxPlots, and The Standard Deviation
• Chapter 5 problem set- 3,7,9,17,23,27,33,41,& 49
• Chapter  5 Quiz

Chapter 6:  The Standard Deviation as a Ruler and the Normal Model-Students will be able to standardize data using standard deviation as a ruler to measure the mean and create z scores.  Students will be able to use Normal models to understand data.

• Read and complete outline
• Chapter 6 notes
• Chapter 6 problem set- 5.9,13,17,23,29,33,39,43 &47
• Classwork:  Candy Bar activity
• Chapter  6 Quiz

Unit I Review
Unit I Test

Writing Assignment Options:  Study Habits and Attitudes, Race and Death Penalty, Dollars for Students, Cholesterol, Auto Safety, and Normal Models

TI-83+/TI-84+- Students should be able to enter, change, and delete data; name, clear, delete, recreate and copy a list; display histograms; create box plots, 1-var. stats and create normal distributions.

Unit II:  Exploring Relationships Between Variables            (16-19 days)

Chapter 7:  Scatterplots, Association, and Correlation:  Students will draw scatterplots and look for patterns.  They will describe association in terms of direction, form and strength.  When it’s linear they will find the correlation.

• Chapter 7 Notes & Outline
• Video: Unit 11(Scatterplots) and Unit 13 (Correlation)
• Chapter 7 Problem Set- pgs 160-167:  3,5,11,15,19,29,&33
• Chapter 7 Quiz

Chapter 8:  Linear Regression:  Students will create lines to model linear association.  Students will show that if they standardize both variables, the best fit line has slope equal to r (regression to the mean).  Students will interpret the slope, y-intercept, and the value of r-square in context.

• Chapter 8 Notes & Outline
• Investigative Task #2
• Classwork: Correlation, Regression , Prediction Worksheet
• ABS:  The Regression Effect/ Leonardo’s Model Bodies
• Video:  Unit 9(Straight Line Growth) and Unit 12 (Fitting Lines to Data)
• Data Desk Lab: Fuel Economy
• Classwork:  Distances & Ticket Prices
• Chapter 8 Problem Set- pgs 189-197: 1,5,7 &11,17,19,21,27,31, 33,35,41 &47

                        Test Chapter 7 & 8

Chapter 9:  Regression Wisdom:  Students will examine pattern changes in scatterplots; the danger of extrapolation; the possible effects of outliers, high leverage, and influential points.

• Chapter 9 Notes & Outline
• Class Activity:  Graduating Classes
• Class Activity:  The Wandering Point  
• ABS:  Matching Descriptions to Scatterplots

Models,Models,Models

• Chapter 9 Quiz
• Chapter 9 Problem Set: pgs 213-219:  1,5,7,9,13,21 &25

                       
Chapter 10:  Re-expressing Data:  Students will learn how to
re-express data using the systematic approach of the ladder of powers and the log-log approach.  Students will also have a discussion about the calculators’ curved models.

• Review of Logarithms
• Classwork: Models
• Chapter 10 Notes & Outline
• Chapter 10 Problem Set: -pgs 238-243: 1,5,9,15,19.25&31
• Video:  Unit 10(Exponential Growth)
• Modeling Non-Linear Data 2
• Investigative Task #3

                        Review Modeling Data Part II
Pages 245-254

                        Modeling Data Test


Writing Assignments:  Life Expectancy, Smoking, Olympic Long Jumps, Alligators,

AP Free-Response:
1999-1,2002-4, 2002B-1,2003B-1,1997-6,2004-1.                   

Unit III-Gathering Data                   (15-18 days)

Chapter 11:  Understanding Randomness-  Students will perform simulation by generating random numbers and use the results to draw conclusions.

• Read Chapter and complete outline
• Class simulation model with TI-83 – RandInt(

                  Coin Toss
Dice Roll

• Set up Simulation  example: cereal boxes
• Do a few more examples- Class Examples 2-4
• ABS:  Random Behavior, Counting Successes
• Chapter 11 Problem Set-
• Chapter 11 Quiz

Chapter 12:  Sample Surveys-  Students will recognize sources of bias in a sampling design and in a sample survey.

• Read Chapter and complete outline
• Class notes
• ABS:  Random Rectangles
• ABS:  Estimating a Total
• Class Examples:  4-6
• Decisions Through Data:  Census & Sampling
• Chapter 12:  Problem Set
• Chapter 12 Quiz
• Writing Assignment

Chapter 13:  Experiments and Observational Studies-  Students will design a completely randomized, blocked or matched pairs experiment.

• Read Chapter and complete outline
• Class Notes
• Class Examples
• ABS:  Jumping Frogs, Gummy Bears in Space
• Discussion of Lurking vs. confounding variables
• Chapter 13: Problem Set
• Chapter 13 Quiz

            Writing Assignment Options:  ESP & Backhoes and Forklifts

            Unit Three Review
Unit Three Assessment

Group Project:  Students conduct a survey, study, or experiment, or do a simulation.  Present their findings to the class, and submit a written report.

            Take Home:  FR: 1997-2,1998-3,1999-3,2000-2


Unit IV- Randomness and Probability     (12-15 days)

Chapter 14:  Students will apply the addition rule, multiplication rule, and complement rule to apply probabilities. 

• Notes on Probabilities- including Venn diagrams and tree diagrams
• Class Examples
• ABS:  What’s the Chance, Random Behavior, Streaky Behavior, The Law of Averages”
• Chapter 14- Problem Set    
• Chapter Quiz

Chapter 15:  Students will calculate conditional probabilities.

• Notes
• Class Examples
• Chapter Quiz
• Chapter 15- Problem Set

Chapter 16:  Students will calculate and interpret the expected Value and standard deviation of a random variable.

• Class Notes
• Class Examples
• ABS:  The Lazy Student
• Chapter 16-Problem Set
• Chapter Quiz

Chapter 17:  Students will describe probability distributions geometric and binomial random variables.

• Class Notes
• Examples
• Chapter17- Problem Set
• Chapter Quiz

Unit IV Review
Unit IV Assessment

TI 83/84-  calculation expected value and standard deviation of a discrete probability distribution, calculating probabilities from binomial and geometry distributions.

Unit V:  Inference for Proportions           (13-15 days)

Chapter 18:  Students will create and interpret a sampling distribution model for sample proportions and learn the Central Limit Theorem.

• Notes on Sampling Distribution
• Read and complete Ch. 18 outline
• Computer Lab-ActivStats Lesson 18
• ABS:  Let Us Count, Spinning Pennies, Cents and the Central Limit Theorem, How Accurate are the Polls
• Decisions Through Data:  Unit 19:  Sampling Distributions
• Quiz Chapter 18
• Chapter 18: Problem Set

Writing Assignment:  Simulated Coins

Chapter 19:  Students will learn confidence intervals for one proportion.

• Read and complete Ch. 19 outline
• Notes on Confidence Intervals for Proportions
• Class examples- Bond Issue
• ActivStats:  Lesson 19 before notes
• ABS:  What is a Confidence Interval Anyway
• Quiz Chapter 19
• Chapter 19: Problem Set

Chapter 20:  Testing Hypotheses about Proportions.  Students will set up and perform a one-sample z-test for proportions.

• Read and complete Ch. 20 outline
• Notes on Testing Hypotheses about Proportions
• Class examples- Headaches
• ActivStats:  Lesson 20 before notes
• ABS:  Dueling Dice, Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
• Quiz Chapter 20
• Chapter 20: Problem Set

Chapter 21:  More About Tests-  Study Type I and Type II errors

• Read and complete Ch. 21 outline
• Notes on Errors in Hypothesis Testing
• Class examples-
• ActivStats:  Lesson 21 before notes
• ABS:  Coins on Edge
• Quiz Chapter 21
• Chapter 21: Problem Set

Writing Assignment:  Life after High School

Chapter 22:  Comparing Two Proportions-Students will set up and conduct a two sample z test for proportions.

• Read and complete Ch. 22 outline
• Notes on Two Proportions Z- Procedures
• Class examples- smokers
• ActivStats:  Lesson 22
• ABS:  Estimating the difference between two proportions
• Quiz Chapter 22
• Chapter 22: Problem Set

Unit V Review
Unit V Assessment

TI-83/TI-84- constructing 1- and 2- sample t-confidence intervals, constructing 1- and 2- proportion z-confidence intervals, performing 1- and 2- sampling t-test, performing 1- and 2- proportion z- tests.

Unit VI-  Inferences for Means                (10-12 days)

Chapter 23:  Inferences for Means-  Students will set up and conduct one sample t-test for means.

• Read and complete Ch. 23 outline
• Notes on One sample t- procedures
• Class examples-
• Decisions Through Data:  Unit 20:  Confidence Intervals??
• ActivStats:  Lesson 23 before notes
• Quiz Chapter 23
• Chapter 23: Problem Set

Writing Assignment:  SAT Performance

Chapter 24:  Comparing Means- Students will set up and conduct two sample t-test for means.

• Read and complete Ch. 24 outline
• Notes on Two sample t- procedures
• Class examples-
• ActivStats:  Lesson 24 before notes
• Quiz Chapter 24
• Chapter 24: Problem Set

Chapter 25:  Paired Samples and Blocks- Students will set up and conduct a paired t- test.

• Read and complete Ch. 25 outline
• Notes on Paired t- test
• Class examples-
• ActivStats:  Lesson 25 before notes
• Quiz Chapter 25
• Chapter 25: Problem Set
• Group Inference Project ( two days)

Writing Assignment:  SAT Performance Part II

Unit VI Review and Assessment

Unit VII:  Inference for Counts and Slopes                   (7-10 days)

Chapter 26:  Comparing Counts- Students will interpret chi-square as a test of goodness-of-fit, homogeneity, and independence.

• Read and complete Ch. 26 outline
• Notes on Chi-Square Tests
• M & M activity ( Chi square goodness-of-fit test)
• ActivStats- Lesson 26
• ABS:  How Typical Are Our Household’s Ages?”
• Ch. 26 Quiz
• Ch. 26: Problem Set

Writing Assignment:  ’97 AP Stat Scores

Chapter 27:  Inferences for Regression-  Students will use inference techniques to draw conclusions about the slope and intercept  of a regression line. Discussion around the confidence interval for slope and hypothesis testing for slope.

• Read and complete Ch. 27 outline
• Notes and class examples of Ch. 27
• ActivStats Lesson 27
• Class work of Correlation and Regression review
• Class work:  Regression Inference on Electricity
• Ch. 27 Quiz
• Ch. 27: Problem Set

Unit VII Review & Assessment

Cumulative Project:           (5-8 days)
Students will complete the following requirements.

• Choose a good question to investigate.
• Design an appropriate study or experiment.
• Collect good data; they may come from a survey observational study, experiment, or other sources such as publications or the internet.
• Summarize your data using appropriate graphical displays, summary statistics, and verbal descriptions.
• Make inferences based on your data
• State your conclusions.
• Present your research to the class.
• Submit a written report.

This project differs from the previous project in that it requires students to perform formal statistical inference.  Students must use at least one inference technique and must formulate a conclusion based on their inference results.

Review for AP Exam:         (10-15 days)
Students will review multiple choice problem and Free- Response Problems.  Students will complete practice test(s) and we will discuss exam format and grading.

Chapter 28:  Analysis of Variance- Students will use inference techniques to draw conclusions about the means of more than two populations.

• ActivStats- Lesson 28 (ANOVA)

Chapter 29:  Multiple Regression- 

• ActivStats- Lesson 29
• Class Examples

Midterm and Final review and exam:  (5-7 days)